Hopp för Irak

Situationen i Irak ter sig synnerligen dyster. De nyheter som dagligen når oss talar om självmordsbombningar, kidnappningar och om att stora delar av Irak är utom kontroll. Den brittiske militärhistorikern John Keegan kommenterar läget:

Some critics of Western occupation policy are raising the idea that Iraq is becoming a Vietnam, a popular thought with old-style opponents of American foreign policy, but quite inaccurate. What America confronted in Vietnam was ideological nationalism, organised at several levels, political and military, all ultimately depending on the Vietcong’s ability to defeat the enemy by conventional methods. There is absolutely no equivalent in Iraq of the Vietcong main force and its battalions of highly motivated infantrymen.
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Since the American leaders – particularly the neo-conservatives who inaugurated the war – took it for granted that Western-style politics would readily take root in Iraq, if offered as an alternative to Saddam’s dictatorship once overthrown, religious terrorism baffles their approach.

Yet not altogether. Neo-Islamists are a minority, even in the most pious Muslim countries, and few Muslims, however devout, wish to die as suicide fighters. A majority of Muslims everywhere are familiar with what Western civilisation offers and are eager to enjoy its rewards.

That explains in part the extensive opposition to the holding of the impending elections in Iraq. Successful elections and the establishment of a government bring a mandate that shakes the claims of even the most committed Islamists to enjoy the right to oppose its authority.

När vi bedömer framtidsutsikterna för en demokratisk utveckling i Irak är det viktigt att fundera över hur många terroristerna egentligen är. John Keegan menar att ”neo-islamisterna” är i minoritet och det förefaller rimligt att det förhåller sig så. En mycket stor majoritet av irakierna ser fram mot valet om en vecka. Den irakiska regimen har också världens mäktigaste militärapparat till sitt förfogande. Med tanke på dessa styrkeförhållanden menar jag att det finns framtidshopp för Irak och dess folk.