Ivrigt uppblåsta dödssiffror från Irak

Hur många har dött sedan Irakkriget inleddes? Precis innan det amerikanska presidentvalet släpptes en brittisk forskarrapport som hävdade att det handlade om så många som 100 000 mestadels civila dödsfall. Svensk media rapporterade om detta (exempelvis här och här) och siffran cirkulerar fortfarande. Rapporten blev givetvis ett vapen i krigsmotståndarnas händer. Och detta var självklart syftet. Andrew Bolt på australienska Herald Sun har undersökt siffrorna och metoden närmare (länktips Melanie). Han skriver:

Their toll of the dead in post-Saddam Iraq was stunning – about five times higher than any credible survey or count had found. What’s more, the survey claimed most victims had died violently – usually killed by Americans – ”and most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children”.

Om forskarnas metod skriver han:

[T]he researchers had to get two things right that they seem instead to have got wrong – the death rates both before and after the invasion.

Why are these figures important? Because a low death rate before the war, and a high one after, would allow the researchers to ”prove” the war was costing many thousands of lives.

And bingo. According to the survey, Iraqis before the war were dying at the rate of just five in 1000 people each year. The death rate among infants was around the average for the region – about 29 in 1000.
But what evidence we have tells us these pre-war death rates were actually much higher. Dated United Nations figures suggest the overall death rate was well over seven in every 1000 – or close to, if not higher than, the present rate of 7.9 in every 1000 that the Lancet survey suggests.

But even more persuasive are 2002 figures from UNICEF, which in a much bigger survey of 24,000 households found the infant mortality rate in Iraq before the war was actually a tragic 108 deaths per 1000 infants.

Han avslutar:

Too many commentators seem too desperate to believe the worst of the Americans and to belittle the liberation of Iraqis from a tyrant. That desperation means even junk surveys such as this will find many eager believers, ready to hear the very worst. And to recklessly repeat it.

Vad hände egentligen med forskargruppens vetenskaplighet? Den, liksom forskarnas heder, ligger i spillror. Och valresultatet ger dem förstås ingen tröst. Tungt men rättvist. När sanningen upphör att vara en forskares ledstjärna kan det bara gå åt ett håll: utför.